Projects

Charts, in a series

Quiz-style scatters from the IL9Cast post-mortem: IL-9 precincts mapped in feature space across pairs of demographic variables. The colored regions show which candidate won the nearest 15 precincts at each point. Scroll →

IL-9 precincts plotted by average voter age versus 2024 Democratic two-party share, colored by candidate.
Average voter age × 2024 Dem share
IL-9 precincts plotted by % White voting-age population versus median household income.
% White × Median income
IL-9 precincts plotted by % commute by transit versus % work from home.
% Transit × % Work from home
IL-9 precincts plotted by % drive alone to work versus % work from home.
% Drive alone × % Work from home

Originally posted as a small thread on X. Sources: Illinois SBOE, ACS 2022, 2024 general.

IL9Cast

A forecasting aggregator I built for the IL-9 Democratic primary: a precinct-level fundamentals model plus a prediction-market tracker on Kalshi and Manifold. Covered in Capitol Fax, the Evanston Roundtable, and the Daily Northwestern.

Forecasting Jan to Mar 2026

Project 2028

A politics-and-policy podcast I founded and host. I record, edit, and ship every episode myself.

Podcast 2022 to Present

Bayes64

A small student group working on political data and forecasting: prediction markets, polling, and whatever else we think is worth modeling. Still figuring out what the site becomes.

Research lab In progress